Preventing Crime & Creating Safer Communities
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Crime Prevention Information & News

Creating Safer Communities in Europe: a crime prevention sourcebook

CRIME TRENDS IN EUROPE

2.1 - Is crime increasing?

Yes, over the last 25 years there appears to have been a general increase in crime in all European countries. Although there have been "plateaux" where the crime rate has levelled off in some countries for a few years and occasional reductions, it is impossible to find any European country where the crime rate is now lower than it was ten or twenty years ago. On the plus side, both official government figures and the 1996 International Crime Victimisation Survey, suggest that crime levels have fallen slightly in many Western European countries during the mid 1990s (after very large increases in previous years). The graph below compares both the rates and changes in recorded crime in France, England and Holland (per 100,000 population), by way of example:

Figure 1: Recorded Crime 1950 -1995

Between 1993 and 1995 France, England and Holland all had falls in recorded crime of about 6%, along with Greece and Switzerland. On the other hand, over the same period recorded crime rates rose in Italy (1%), Ireland (4%) and Portugal (6%). It may not be insignificant that, as we shall see later, the countries experiencing these recent falls in crime have more developed crime prevention strategies than those where crime continues to increase.

2.2 - How do we know how much crime there is?

The most widespread method for measuring crime levels is to use the records of crimes recorded by the police. As well as variations in recording methods and crime categorisation between countries, this data is not entirely reliable because it depends on someone reporting a crime. It has been argued that, to some extent, the increase in crime over the last twenty five years is substantially weighted by increases in reporting, rather than an absolute increases in criminal events. Victims and witnesses may nowadays be more inclined to report crime because: with more access to telephones it is easier to report, insurance companies require victims to report losses they are claiming for, there are lower thresholds of tolerance about behaviour such as domestic violence and drink driving and the public may feel more comfortable about contacting the police than they did previously. This latter point may also explain why a country such as Sweden appears to have such a high crime rate - more victims in Sweden report crimes to the police than in any other European country, according to the 1996 International Crime Victimisation Survey. Conversely, France has one of the lowest reporting rates, which may be to do with the historically poor rapport between the French police and public.

There is little doubt that incidents of crime have increased generally in Europe. There are many likely explanations for the absolute increase in crime (see section 2.6). Briefly, it is likely that following factors in particular may have contributed to the dramatic increase in crime rates over the last 25 years: the huge increase in drug misuse and related offending, the profusion of portable consumer goods (including cars and their contents) and people's increased mobility leading to a decline in traditional stable communities.

The increases in both absolute levels of crime and the reporting of crime are confirmed by large scale crime surveys which have been carried out in recent years in a number of European countries. These surveys, in which a representative sample of the population are interviewed about their actual experience of crime, offer a more accurate picture of crime rates than the police statistics, although for a number of methodological and practical reasons, true comparisons remain elusive . Generally these crime surveys reveal that, unsurprisingly, far more offences are committed than come to the notice of the police, but that the rate of increase in offending may not be as steep as police figures suggest. What may be surprising though is the degree of difference between the number of offences committed (as estimated in crime surveys) and the proportion of those reported to and recorded by the police. According to the 1996 International Crime Victimisation Survey, England & Wales have comparatively high rates of reporting crime to the police, yet the figures below reveal a considerable shortfall:

Figure 2: Recorded and unrecorded crime in England and Wales (Source: British Crime Survey 1996)

2.3 - Are crime levels the same everywhere?

No - there appear to be significant variations between countries. Although it is difficult to undertake direct national comparisons, because of different ways of categorising offences and recording crime, the 1989 and 1992 International Crime Surveys (ICS) attempted a standardised telephone interview technique with a sample of residents in a number of European countries. Although subject to a number of methodological weaknesses, the ICS can give us a rough guide to variations in levels and types of crime between countries.

A crude compilation of figures from the ICS suggest that the highest risk countries (of those surveyed) are The Netherlands and Poland. "Average" countries for crime include: England, Czech Republic, Spain, Italy, West Germany and Sweden. Countries with low rates of crime include: Austria, France, Scotland, Belgium, Finland, Norway, Switzerland and Northern Ireland.

Figure 3: Crimes per 100 respondents 1995 (Source: International Crime Victims Survey)

These categories do not reveal crime trends; for example between 1988 and 1991 victimisation increased in England by 56% whereas in Belgium over the same period it only increased by 9%. In France the crime rate fell in the early eighties as it has in England and The Netherlands during 1993/5. The former eastern bloc countries had comparatively low crime rates but these have escalated since democratisation (The price of freedom?)

Finally, self-report criminality surveys can give us yet another dimension to the crime picture. Like crime victimisation surveys, they bypass official recorded statistics and rely on people giving an honest response in return for confidentiality. An international self-report delinquency study (Junger-Tas et al 1994) found that in most European countries between 40 and 70 percent of young people admitted to delinquent behaviour in the previous 12 months.

2.4 - What types of crime?

The ICS suggests significant variations between countries according to types of crime you risk becoming a victim of. England (closely followed by Italy) is the car crime capital of Europe, whereas (unsurprisingly perhaps) the Netherlands is top for bicycle theft. Spain is easily the highest risk location for robbery, whereas in Poland pick-pocketing is the most popular pastime. Poland also shares with the Czech Republic and West Germany, above average rates of sexual assaults.

2.5 - What about fear?

Fear of crime is not necessarily linked to actual risk of victimisation. The British are twice as worried about crime as the Swiss, but they are not twice as likely to become victims. Balvig (1987) suggests that this disparity may be partly to do with the media's coverage or neglect of crime as an issue. The Dutch have noted through their national crime surveys, that, although crime rates have been stabilised or falling in the Netherlands over the last few years, the fear of crime has gone on increasing. They are now having to tackle the important business of fear reduction, as irrational levels of fear can be seriously detrimental to people's quality of life (e.g.: through self-imposed curfews or reluctance to go into city centres at night).

Figure 4: Those feeling unsafe when out alone at night (Source: 1996 International Crime Victims Survey)

2.6 - Why has crime increased?

This is a Sourcebook, not a criminological treatise, so no substantial attempt will be made to hypothesise on the "causes" of the increase in crime and criminality. However, it seems likely that there are a number of interlinking factors which may, at least partly explain what is precipitating this general rise in crime and insecurity. These will include:

• urbanisation (and the exodus from rural areas)
• government policies ("free market", withdrawal of public service subsidies, collapse of communism in the east)
• loosening social controls (more mobility, abandonment of religion and other traditional moral codes)
• prosperity - more things to steal
• alienating built environments (e.g.: peripheral housing estates, tower blocks, multi-storey car parking, automated transit systems)
• relative poverty/ inequality
• exclusion - underclasses, ethnic minorities
• increasing levels of drug misuse and offending to support addictions

In relation to point 2 above, it is interesting to note the introduction of åperestroyka¯ (1987) and the upward trend in crime in Moscow, as shown in the graph below (taken from the 1994 UNICRI report: Crime and Crime prevention in Moscow)

Figure 5: Crime rate in Moscow per 100,000 population (Source: UNICRI)

2.7 - What does all this suggest for crime prevention and community safety?

To deal with such complex and variable causal problems for crime, simple "one-shot" solutions are unlikely to be durably effective. As the úattritionî diagram below shows, prevailing methods of crime control, which rely on the deterrence effect of apprehension and conviction, are failing. Even if the efficiency of policing and detection doubled in England and Wales (and other European countries), offenders would still get away with over 90% of their crimes.

Figure 6: Outcomes as a percentage of all crimes committed (Source: Home Office, England)

The traditional police-led approach to crime prevention is being re-appraised in many European countries. This is not necessarily to devalue policing 'per se', but to look at alternative elements of policing (such as community involvement and architectural liaison) and, most significantly, to examine the role of community groups and other public service agencies in preventing crime, as part of a multi-agency matrix of activity.

Countries have to "think nationally - act locally" to prevent crime and create safer communities for their citizens. Many European countries are carrying out sophisticated, multi-layered programmes, aspects of which are transferable and replicable. The ensuing chapters of this document illustrate this in the hope that we can improve our practice through shared skills and exchange of knowledge.